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The Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors, Inc. (HGAR) and OneKey® MLS hosted a virtual panel last week with real estate experts who discussed New York real estate market trends and forecasts. Executives from Related Cos., Compass and Sotheby’s discussed sales activity, real estate valuations, foreign investment and other factors influencing the market heading into 2023.
“If you just look at the numbers and compare 2022 to 2021, it looks grim, but you have to put it into context,” said Richard Haggerty, CEO of OneKey® MLS, the regional multiple listings service that covers nearly a dozen counties in the greater New York area from Manhattan to Suffolk, Westchester and Sullivan.
“While the numbers are down around 30%, we need to focus on two things: we lost all seasonality to the market in the years 2020/2021 when we had a rush of activity. It wasn’t sustainable,” Haggerty said. “Furthermore, buyers were pausing at the end of 2022 as interest rates rose. That’s what we expected. Now we see lower interest rates, more normality and a return to seasonality.
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“New Years, New York: An In-Depth Look at the New York Real Estate Market for 2023” featured Kevin Brown, Senior Advisor, Global Real Estate, Sotheby’s International Realty; Elizabeth Stribling-Kivlan, senior managing director at Compass; and Sherry Tobak, senior vice president of Related Cos., who oversees sales at Hudson Yards. The event was moderated by Brian D. Tormey, NTP, President of TitleVest, a leading New York-based provider of title insurance and related real estate services.
The panel weighed in on 2022 statistics, economic factors, interest rates, inflation and the shift from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market, and offered forecasts for property values and the return of foreign investors.
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“It’s a temporary moment – markets fluctuate, that’s what they’re supposed to do,” Stribling-Kivlan said. “With interest rates going up, everyone was so concerned about how the world was going…it’s very easy to look at Instagram or a stock and not get wrapped up in the fact that prices haven’t almost never been higher, rents are still very expensive, there are so many fewer stocks… Now, activity is already picking up.
The panel agreed that the New York market is seeing an increasing flow of foreign buyers, particularly from Asia, but also from Canada, South America and Central America.
“Foreign investors are coming back,” Tobak said. “I’m really excited about the reopening of China – as luxury goods buyers, they’re very savvy, very smart, they follow market trends and aren’t afraid to step into new situations, like Hudson Yards. We also see Europeans, definitely Brits, and I met a couple from Australia who were buying here. It’s New York, everyone wants to be here, everyone wants a piece of the action. I am very bullish on the market for 2023.”
The panel also discussed whether the market is moving in favor of buyers and whether sellers are willing to make concessions.
“Sellers are more realistic than brokers,” Brown said. “When I bring buyers out, I always tell them, ‘There are no bargains in New York.’ My job is to find good value. You’ve read about “big price” sales, but that’s exactly what they are. The vast majority of sales sell for 4-6% off the last price asked. Over the next two quarters, we will adjust.
Haggerty asked the panel about “hidden gems” or neighborhoods they are particularly bullish on in terms of value for 2023.
“Queens is such an overlooked borough. It’s closer to Manhattan, and there’s a very good housing stock. Queens is a launching pad for so many amazing people, ideas and cultures and we don’t give it enough credit,” Stribling-Kivlan said.
Brown accepted Queens, for his quarters. “We’ve lost so much of our neighborhoods in New York,” he said, adding, “Manhattan is always reinventing itself. Right now, the Upper East Side is where the values are.
The panel also shared forecasts for New York’s housing market in 2023.
“I see 2023 as a very important year for all of us,” Tobak said. “Yes, interest rates are high and prices are lower than they were in the previous year or two, but they will catch up. So consider if you are in a position to buy something now that you know is undervalued but will go up in value.
“Overall, 2023 is going to be a great year… we’re going to be up, up, up,” Brown said, but also warned real estate professionals to prepare for 2024: “It’s going to be an election national year and New Yorkers are very distracted, disrupting our market, so to all New York brokers, enjoy 2023!
To learn more, watch the webinar here:
The webinar is part of the “Be Your Best” series created by HGAR and OneKey® MLS, to help realtors and agents navigate a changing landscape amid the pandemic. The event was sponsored by TitleVest.
About OneKey® MLS
OneKey® MLS has over 50,000 subscribers and serves Manhattan, Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, Sullivan, Orange, Nassau, Suffolk, Queens, Brooklyn and the Bronx. It was formed in 2018 by the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors and the Long Island Board of Realtors.
About Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors®
The Hudson Gateway Realtors Association (www.hgar.com) is a nonprofit trade association representing more than 14,000 real estate professionals in Manhattan, Bronx, Westchester, Putnam, Rockland and Orange counties. It is the second largest association of real estate agents in New York and one of the largest in the United States.
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