East Bay real estate markets have seen significant changes since 2019 – and more are on the way.
“The most dramatic changes in 2023 will be mortgage interest rates,” said Steve Medeiros, 2023 president of the Bay East Association of Realtors.
In early 2022, rumors of new federal lending policies pushed rates higher. After years of historically low rates, in mid-2022 homebuyers trying to secure purchase financing were faced with rates that had nearly doubled from a few months prior. Higher monthly payments put the cost of property in Pleasanton out of reach for many potential buyers.
“Faced with significantly lower buying power due to larger monthly payments, buyers have given up aggressive bidding,” Medeiros said. “Starting in June 2022, homes started to stay on the market longer as buyers put the brakes on.”
This was a major change from summer and fall 2021. During this time, a home was on the market, on average, for two weeks or less. Contrary to the seasonal nature of real estate activity, homes sold faster in November and December compared to previous months.
The summer and fall of 2022 were different because as interest rates rose, homebuyer enthusiasm waned and Pleasanton homes sat on the market for days and then weeks. A home was on the market for an average of 36 days in December 2022, compared to seven days the previous December.
The higher rates also had an impact on sellers. As buyers were driven out of the market by higher monthly payments and sellers began to receive fewer multiple offers from buyers, sellers responded by lowering prices – another significant change from 2022, when selling prices steadily increased month-on-month.
The median sale price of a single-family home in Pleasanton in March 2022 was over $2 million. By December 2022, the median sale price had fallen to around $1.5 million.
A few months of cooling prices didn’t necessarily help homebuyers. “Prices were still out of reach for many buyers last year,” Medeiros said. “Even after several consecutive months of falling prices, annual house prices last year were still at record highs.”
The median sale price for all of 2022 was over $1.7 million, compared to $1.6 million in 2021 and $1.2 million in 2020.
Buyers who stayed in the market had more time to shop, less competition from other buyers, and more choice.
Another major difference between real estate market conditions in 2021 compared to 2022 was the number of homes for sale. In 2021, inventory peaked in April with 39 homes on the market. In April 2022, there were 45 homes for sale and over the following months the inventory steadily increased, reaching 86 homes on the market in July.
More homes for sale did not result in more actual sales compared to previous years. There were 555 single-family homes sold in Pleasanton in 2022, compared to 867 sold in 2021 and 686 sold in 2020.
One of the reasons for the drop in sales in 2022 is that real estate activity in Pleasanton in 2021 was driven by a combination of historically low interest rates, buyers exploiting savings accumulated during the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020 and, in some cases, stock options for large installments. These factors have helped buyers who have been waiting, in some cases for years, to enter the market and buy a record number of homes in 2021.
“While real estate activity in 2022 was different from previous years, the market did not crash, it was just different and reflected changing economic conditions,” Medeiros said.
Jordan Levine, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, agreed with the changes buyers and sellers are going through in 2022, saying, “A big part of the recent slowdown in home sales is that the market is catching its breath and getting back on track. earth. after being so hot last year in 2021.”
Medeiros said the home buying and selling experience promises to be different again in 2023. “Some mortgage interest rates, although still higher than 2020 and 2021, are stabilizing or even drop,” Medeiros said.
Levine agreed: “Rates on ‘jumbo’ mortgages, which are the types of loans that many Tri-Valley homebuyers are likely to use, are currently lower than conforming rates, which will actually benefit markets like Pleasanton. “
“Homes can be on the market longer, buyers will have more choices and more opportunities to negotiate, which will bring more balance to the market,” Medeiros said.
Levine says this balance will help cool, but not freeze, housing market conditions: “Prices are expected to remain elevated as housing demand continues to outstrip supply, but appreciation will be more subdued than in previous years. .”
Editor’s note: David Stark is director of public affairs and communications for the Pleasanton-based Bay East Association of Realtors.