- Jacksonville pending home sales fell 57% in November, tied for 3rd worst in the nation
- Ian’s impact sent mortgage delinquencies soaring, making Florida the top nation last month
- Despite economic trends, eight of the top ten metropolitan areas for year-over-year home price increases are in Florida
Florida real estate watchers are in puzzle mode as mortgage rates drop, but mixed economic reports show a worrying decline in pending home sales and overall buyer interest. Data from a pair of real estate analytics firms also indicates Florida leads the nation in rising home prices, while being among the worst states last month in pending home sales. .
Redfin Real Estate Data Center found that among the 50 most populous US metropolises, pending sales fell the most from a year earlier in Las Vegas (-64%), Austin (-58.2%), Phoenix (-57%), Jacksonville, FL (-57%) and Sacrament (-54%). Data is current to November 20, 2022.
Florida too leads the nation in mortgage defaultswith more than 19,000 last month, pushing the state’s delinquency rate to 3.42%, an early indication of Hurricane Ian’s impact on the real estate market, according to Black Knight, Inc., a firm real estate analyst based in Florida.
The news isn’t all bad for Florida, which still tops the year-over-year home price increase charts. Eight of the top 10 markets nationwide are based in Florida. Naples, at 42.2% over last year’s market prices, leads the country, followed by Bradenton at 31.2%, Boca Raton at 27.7% and Clearwater at 24%. Rounding out the rest of Florida cities are Lehigh Acres, Palm Bay, Miami, and Pompano Beach. Tulsa, Oklahoma (5th overall) and Fayetteville, North Carolina (10th overall) were the only non-Florida cities to place in the national top ten.
But those prices are expected to fall, according to some domestic analysts. Axios reported early Monday that an economic analyst predicted a “collapse” in U.S. house prices, while Goldman Sachs predicted a drop of around 4% overall. Other economic experts said the low overall unemployment rate, which would help control mortgage defaults, combined with the low overall home inventory, would act as a floor to temper the decline.