Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA professional and founder of read line, a leading golf betting information service covering the PGA Tour, which will increase your betting savvy (and hopefully your bankroll). Subscribe to read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow ICT Tac, instagram and Twitter.
A new week on the PGA Tour and another completely different set of challenges. The Farmers Insurance Open is played at the famous Torrey Pines facility. This scenic 36-hole municipal landscape is a LONG test of golf. The south course, which hosts the major championship, extends over 7,765 meters. The scoreboard shows a par 72, but there are two par 5s over 600 yards, three par 3s over 200 yards and seven par 4s over 450 yards.
The North Course is 507 meters shorter and still extends to 7,200 meters. Minus a test, this course is the key to scoring when playing the farmers. The average earning score over the past 10 years is 13 under par. Since most winners rack up around half that total in a spin on the North, keep a close eye on players who score well there for in-play betting purposes.
- South Course (played three rounds)
- Par 72 measuring 7,765 yards on the scorecard
- Average green size is approximately 5,000 square feet
- The greens are Poa annua grass and the course has 82 bunkers
- 13 of the 14 tee shots face a fairway bunker, and 12 of those holes have some movement from the tee.
- North course (played a round)
- Par 72 measuring 507 yards short of his counterpart at 7,258
- The greens are bentgrass and a little bigger at 6,000 square feet (average).
- The par 3s in the north are all over 200 meters.
- 42 bunkers and no water penalty areas.
- Again, 12 holes bend from the tee and 12 of the 14 tee shots face a fairway bunker.
The 156-man field will play a round on the north and south before the 36-hole cut on Wednesday and Thursday. Yes, Wednesday. For the second year in a row, the PGA Tour is starting the tournament a day earlier than usual, allowing for a prime-time finish on Saturday rather than the NFL conference championship games on Sunday.
The Top 65 and the ties that make the cup will play the south course on Friday and Saturday.
- Five of the top 10 players in the world are competing (click here for full scope)
- The purse is $8.7 million with a first place check of $1.57 million
- Jon Rahm has two wins in two starts this season and is the betting favorite at +400 (4-1)
- It is currently 54 under par in 2023
- He has four career wins in California, including two at Torrey Pines.
Given this incredible setting along the cliffs of La Jolla overlooking the Pacific Ocean, we know the weather can play a role in the outcome. Early forecasts call for cooler temperatures to start the day in the mid 40s and reach the mid 60s in the afternoon. The wind should blow in the middle of the teenage years. There will probably be a little more wind on the water, but for the moment, nothing too penalizing.
The tournament forecast looks dry for the week, but California has been hit extremely hard by wet weather recently. According to the facility’s Director of Agronomy, Devin Cullen, the courses are very soft and will play longer than usual. Since length was already a key to contend with, let’s take a closer look at why power is essential to Torrey.
- About 30% of players’ approach shots on the south course are over 200 yards.
- The greens are small on the south course. The closer you can attack down the fairway, the better your chances of scoring.
- Both courses will have a thick, luscious rough to contend with. The power of these lies will be important in advancing the ball near the green.
The PGA Tour average for approach shots over 175 yards is 40%. The Torrey South course will require you to swing a long iron more than 47% of the time. As a result, players only hit 62% of their greens in regulation. This is below average for the tour. Accuracy alone on approach is not the only key. Hitting the fairways only happens 53% of the time. These constant demands put a lot of pressure on the short game and putting.
- The 10 winners of the past decade have won putting strokes. On average, they gained 3.4 shots against the ground.
- The north course has bentgrass greens, but the south where they will compete for three rounds has Poa annua greens. Some players are more successful on Poa than others. Our bets below reflect this ability.
- 8 of the last 10 winners have won shots around the green.
- The average cut line among farmers is 2 under normal over the past decade.
Since the start of 2023, these guys have been throwing drives in paradise with wide fairways in Kapalua. They took advantage of a short par-4 in Honolulu. Last week, they attacked every scoring opportunity in Palm Springs. As you can see, Torrey is a different test. Thirty-five of the world’s top 50 players want to test themselves.
I bet we’ll do better than them with this week’s Win, Place, and Show.
Xander Schauffele hails from Southern California, but the reasons to bet on him this week run much deeper than that.
Andy Abeyta/USA TODAY Network
Pick to Win: Xander Schauele
Six of the past 10 Farmers winners have come in at odds below +2500 (25-1). While I’m not ready for a one-ball strategy on Rahm, I’m going to lean heavily towards the top of the board on my betting card. Xander Schauele (+1200 SI Sportsbook) has the full skillset needed to win at Torrey. Forget Southern California familiarity, he ranks first in the field in tee shots to the green and on approaches. This incredible combination of power and precision is what Torrey demands. In 2021, Xander finished second at Farmers and seventh at the US Open. Last week at the Amex, he closed with 62 and finished third. If anyone can match Rahm on this course, it’s the X-man.
Last week’s pick: Tony Finau finished T16 at The American Express, solid but six shots behind Rahm.
Location: Taylor Montgomery
In his last nine starts, Taylor Montgomery has finished outside the Top 15 once. He earned positive hits off the tee, on the approach and on the green last week in the desert. His ability to putt will separate him on a tough course like Torrey Pines. Take Taylor to finish in the top 20 one more week at +130 on SI sportsbook.
Last week’s pick: Si Woo Kim finished T22, dying one shot out of the top 20.
Matchup: Spaun vs. Davis
This week’s matchup pick is JJ Spaun (-110 on PointsBet) vs. Cam Davis (-125). The books favor Davis since his participation in the Presidents Cup. He just missed the cut at the Amex and finished 32nd at the Sony Open. Spaun has not finished outside the top 15 in his last four starts dating back to November. JJ hits more fairways, avoids bogeys better and earns more GIRs, all skills that will set him apart this week from Davis.
Last week’s pick: Jason Day (T18) cashed in against Rickie Fowler (T54), keeping Keith undefeated in the matchups.
Jon Rahm +400
Tony Finau +1200
Xander Schauele +1200
Collin Morikawa+1400
Justin Thomas +1400
Will Zalatoris +1600
Jason Day +2000
Max Homa +2000
Sungjae Im +2000
Taylor Montgomery +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +3000
Maverick McNealy +3000
Si Woo Kim +3300
Sahith Theegala +4000